Burgeoning demand

It’s easy to underestimate the scale of the decarbonisation challenge at a local level. The widespread electrification of homes and businesses, involving a proliferation of electric vehicles, heat pumps and other low-carbon technologies, is expected to double electricity loads by 2050, making the conventional, one-directional energy model unable to meet demand.

A switch to bi-directional power flows, hooked up to flexible energy resources within local distribution networks, will help smooth out demand peaks and troughs and keep the grid functional and efficient.

But reinforcing networks and connecting diverse new sources of generation requires DNOs to commit financing and resources, and according to Professor Keith Bell at the University of Strathclyde, there remains “a lot of uncertainty” over when the roll-out will start in earnest, and quite how much capacity will be needed at what location.

The RIIO-ED3 price control period, starting in 2028, is predicted to be a key tipping point, introducing a new regional system planning approach, and reviewing the role of DNOs to enable greater flexibility on the system.

Local Area Energy Plans (LAEP), developed by local authorities in collaboration with DNOs, local developers and the community, will form a key piece of the puzzle, translating national net zero targets into collaborative, data-driven and cost-effective strategies. According to the Energy Systems Catapult, around 10 new local councils commit to an LAEP each month and the overall number is close to 100.

“The headline here is the importance of coordination and local governance,” says Tom Luff, senior adviser at Energy Systems Catapult, which spearheaded the development of LAEPs. “Bringing all of those actors together to make decisions in a democratic way is really important for building trust and finding the right solutions.”

Luff highlights SSEN’s innovative geospatial planning platform Local Energy Net Zero Accelerator, developed through the distribution project RESOP to support councils and their delivery partners in the creation of LAEPs.

Data and modelling tools in the platform include information on network capacity, building stock and energy consumption, and will inform longer-term strategic network planning by SSEN Distribution.

Long-held assumptions about the design of electricity distribution networks, such as the concept of after diversity maximum demand, where demand is aggregated over a large number of customers, are now inaccurate. Another key area of innovation is therefore around monitoring signals to understand the impact of distributed energy resources on net energy flows.

Data coming from smart meters, though incomplete, is “pretty good for investment planning, and can form statistical models based on the data”, says Bell. However, more real-time data is needed to understand consumer needs for flexibility, based on time of use.

DNOs already use active network management control systems to allocate power to different generators and so avoid expensive network upgrades, and their capabilities will improve as the magnitude and complexity of energy flows across the grid increases.

“They are becoming more complex, able to control a group of generators connected within a particular network area, also taking into account interactions with the transmission level,” says Bell, adding that the ability to monitor a wider set of locations and optimise the software to limit power flows at particular times, “would be a good step forward”.