Scenario modelling

The Just Transition adds a new dimension as information on the needs of low income or vulnerable groups in the shift to net zero can be used to inform design and investment strategies.

Scenario modelling has traditionally been an engineering exercise, but SSEN broke the mould last year with the development of the Vulnerability Future Energy Scenarios (VFES) project, carried out with Imperial College London, The Smith Institute and National Energy Action. The principals from VFES were then embedded into SSENs Distribution Future Energy Scenarios (DFES) with independent energy expert Regen, which for the first time also factored in socio-economic data.

The initiative is exploiting machine learning and expert validation to map different types of vulnerability across its licence areas, information that’s overlaid onto existing distribution network projections to support more accurate investment planning.

As the project progresses, vulnerability data is now being combined with income and fuel poverty data to forecast the communities likely to need smart tech like heat pumps and EVs in 2030, 2035 and 2040. Further analysis of the data will reveal how fair current network planning is and what additional support is needed to make it more inclusive.

Insights revealed by VFES include the projection that lower income groups are about 20% more likely to connect to a district heating network in future, says Stewart, and it found that overall SSEN is working towards a “relatively fair uptake” of low carbon technologies over the next decade. However, policy support currently in place doesn't quite match requirements looking forward to 2035 or 2040.

“The question is, what support is needed to realistically make that investment in the network,” says Stewart, who adds that not helping lower income groups to transition would ultimately mean “investing in massive inequality in the system itself”. The intention now is to make social and economic analysis a core part of SSEN’s network planning.

The complexities of delivering a cost-effective and equitable net zero also takes in areas ranging from electric vehicles, to the heat revolution, to transitioning remote and rural communities, all of which SSEN has taken steps to explore.

A recent report by SSEN and Grid Edge Policy examined the opportunities presented by smart electric storage heating as an alternative low carbon technology to heat pumps, which are considered unsuitable for many properties due to a lack of space, higher upfront costs and poor insulation.

It concluded that storage heating with controls that enable consumers to use electricity at off peak rates could benefit many properties where heat pumps are not viable, many of which are low income or vulnerable households.

In a drive to improve energy security in remote areas susceptible to power cuts, the Resilience as a Service project, led by SSEN, Costain and E.ON, is aiming to develop an innovative low carbon solution combining battery storage with local energy resources. Such storage solutions will become increasingly important as the grid incorporates more distributed generation.